Early Warning Decision Support in Fragile States

In many fragile states, the ability to provide timely, actionable information for early warning and crisis response is severely constrained by limited ground access, ongoing conflict, infrastructure collapse, or extreme environmental conditions. Traditional methods of monitoring risk indicators are often too slow, costly, or dangerous, leaving authorities and humanitarian actors with critical information gaps when rapid decisions are most needed.

Earth Observation (EO) technologies offer a powerful, scalable solution to enable early warning and decision support in these challenging environments. Satellite-based monitoring enables tracking forced displacement dynamics, monitoring refugee camp development, assessing damage and needs in conflict zones, and providing early warnings for large-scale conflict events and food security crises. EO also supports the planning and remote monitoring of development interventions, offering vital insights in areas with extremely limited access.

EO underpins the development and delivery of critical information services that strengthen crisis preparedness and support community resilience. It enables the identification of risk-informed plans for public works and assists in leveraging layered financing strategies. In the context of food security operations, EO provides geo-intelligence for targeted response activities by supplying timely risk indicators—based on satellite data combined with other datasets on drought, political violence, displacement, and migration. This integration enhances famine forecasting models by incorporating conflict dynamics, thereby supporting more effective early warning and response mechanisms.