Using Climate Data to Predict Dengue Epidemics in Pakistan
GDA Public Health supported ADB and BSC in developing Pakistan’s first climate‑informed dengue Early Warning System, using satellite‑derived climate data to predict outbreaks months in advance.
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Description
With support from ESA’s GDA Public Health activity, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) and the Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC) co‑developed Pakistan’s first climate‑informed dengue Early Warning System, using multi‑year satellite‑derived climate data, including rainfall anomalies (SPI), temperature patterns, and monsoon intensity, alongside demographic information and historical outbreak records to forecast epidemic peaks months in advance.
The work uncovered a key climate-disease mechanism: September rainfall acts as an ecological “bridge” that sustains mosquito breeding sites into October, when temperatures are ideal for dengue transmission. This insight explains much of the year‑to‑year variability in epidemic size and gives governments a clear, actionable intervention window. Blind testing showed the model can accurately predict major outbreaks under realistic operational conditions.
Built on transparent, open‑source methods, the system is cost‑effective and scalable across other climate‑vulnerable countries. Its full deployment now depends on Pakistan establishing automated digital health data pipelines and strengthening institutional engagement to integrate climate‑informed forecasting into routine public health planning.
You can read more about this Case Study here: From climate data to public health action: an early warning system for dengue in