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High‑Resolution Heat Risk Mapping for Pakistan

GDA Public Health supported the rapid scale‑up of satellite‑derived heat stress monitoring in Pakistan, producing daily 100‑m heat risk maps that combine UTCI‑based climate indicators with population exposure data.

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Description

Pakistan is experiencing increasingly dangerous levels of heat stress as temperatures rise and cities grow denser. To help the country better understand and manage these risks, satellite‑based climate data and new modelling techniques are being used to map where people are most exposed. The approach centres on daily heat‑risk maps built from the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI), which captures how heat actually feels to the human body by factoring in humidity, wind, and radiation, as well as air temperature.

These maps identify heatwave events as periods of more than three consecutive days of very high UTCI values, when the body struggles to cool down overnight. Sustained exposure of this kind sharply increases the risk of heat exhaustion, heatstroke, and cardiovascular strain, especially for older people, young children, outdoor workers, and residents of crowded, low‑income neighbourhoods. For 2024, the maps were produced at a resolution of 100 square metres, allowing authorities to pinpoint vulnerable communities with exceptional precision.

Because the underlying datasets are global, the same method can be quickly replicated in other heat‑affected countries. All outputs can be explored through the Climate and Health Viewer that will be integrated into the  ADB’s Climate-Health Portal, giving planners and public health teams a practical tool to see when and where heat risk is emerging. This evidence supports more targeted interventions, stronger early warning systems, and long‑term climate‑resilient planning. By providing continuous, high‑resolution insight into how heat affects people across Pakistan, the system helps decision‑makers act earlier and protect those most at risk as temperatures continue to rise.

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Key Takeaways

    • Daily 100‑m heat risk maps integrate UTCI‑derived heat stress indicators with high‑resolution population data to pinpoint vulnerable communities.
    • Heatwave events are tracked using multi‑day UTCI thresholds, revealing where sustained exposure poses the greatest health risks.
    • Built on globally available datasets, the framework is fully scalable to other heat‑affected countries lacking dense meteorological sensor networks.